When Should The Eventual Champ Lose?

Most observers believe this NCAA tournament ranks among the most wide open in recent memory. Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has had ten different teams move in and out of his projected one seed line over the course of a six week period. While he didn't go so far as to say was unprecedented, he did concede that he couldn't remember the last time this happened.
That fact suggests that using a dart when filling out your bracket would be as useful as studying the potential match-ups. But recent history offers hints of who you should ultimately have vie for the national title regardless of the perception that it's anyone's tournament to win. Here's a quick view of the teams that played for and ultimately won the national title over the last decade.

With the exception of UCONN in 2011, the winner was seeded third or higher and no team from outside the power 6 conferences ultimately won the national championship. Only two schools from outside the power six advanced to the title game, Butler in 2010 and 2011 and Memphis in 2008.

If you want to believe that Gonzaga or another team from outside the power six will advance to the title game, use Butler and Memphis's history in those seasons as a predictor, the Bulldogs last loss in either of those seasons came in February at the latest (In 2010, their last loss came before Christmas). Memphis's last loss in their title run season came in late February. Thus, no team who didn't dominate their conference and enter the tournament on a long winning streak advanced farther then the Final Four, and few qualified for that-VCU and George Mason are examples.

Of the 17 power 6 teams who won or played for the national championship, only five of them went undefeated through March into the tournament, less then 30%.
Of the remaining 11, 9 of them lost in their conference tournament. The other two teams, UCONN in 2011, lost in their final regular season game and Duke the year prior last lost on March 3rd.

So when choosing teams to play for the title: those outside the power six who (assuming they continue to win until selection Sunday) who meet this criteria are: Gonzaga, St. Louis, Louisana Tech and to a lesser degree based on total unusual strength of the Mountain West, New Mexico.

As for the Power Six, only one in ten won a title from outside the top 3 seeds and more then 50 percent of the time, the champion lost either in their conference tournament or within the last week of the regular season. Being that 9 of the 17 power six teams lost in their respective conference tournament means that result only matters if it changes the seed a team gets. With the lone outlier of UCONN, a team must remain a 3 seed following their conference tournament to remain in this discussion.

It begs the question, is there such a thing as a good loss in college basketball? It appears a little March Madness foreshadows a lot of March success.